The ‘press’ epitomises modern football, with many of the world’s best teams renowned for aggressively hounding the opposition in dangerous areas when out of possession. So how well does a high press correlate with league success for Championship teams?
Before we look at its effectiveness in the Championship, it’s important to understand how we can use data to visualise the persistence of a team’s pressing ability. “Passes per defensive action” (PPDA for short) has become the go-to metric to understand and visualise the intensity of press. In short, PPDA takes the amount of opposition passes, dividing them by the total number of defensive actions from the attacking team. Only events in the attacking 60% of the field are included within the calculation:
PPDA summarises how many passes a team can make, without the opposition making a real attempt to dispossess them. The lower a team’s PPDA is, the more efficiently they are pressing high. So what happens when we map PPDA with the points totals (and expected points) of the 19/20 Championship clubs? Some interesting results, for sure:
The major outlier within this visualisation are Leeds and Barnsley. Leeds’ title winning squad was perfectly built for an aggressive press, and with a PPDA of 6.4, it was a major contribution to their league success. Bielsa instructs his team to press high up the pitch and be on the front foot, with Leeds’ alignment as a team out of possession consistently impressive. Bielsa sees a high press imperative to the process of regaining possession, as it directly leads to more chances at goal.
Struber’s Barnsley, despite a different shape to Leeds, are proponents of the same idea. Since the appointment of Gerhard Struber, Barnsley have pressed in a 4–4–2 diamond, with the aim to overload the opposition centrally. The team’s strikers have the job of pressing the centre backs, the two number 8’s press the full backs when on the ball, and the number 10 closes in on the opposition’s defensive midfielder. The aim of their press, as ever, is to starve the opposition of time on the ball. What the 4–4–2 offers is the freedom to press, whilst comfortably protecting the central areas. Clearly, Barnsley’s pressing ability didn’t correlate with a high league finish, but after a remarkable escape from relegation last season, I think they could soon prove themselves as a team to be reckoned with.
At the other end of the spectrum, are Lamouchi’s Notts Forest. It’s no secret that the red dogs have pursued a defensive approach this season, and prior to their end of season collapse they were well assured at the back. Likewise, Rowett’s Millwall are third bottom for PPDA, another team pursuing a defensive approach. So why are Derby, under an attack-minded coach, so close to these teams on the scatter?
Derby County
Phillip Cocu is implementing a modern approach to the Dutch ‘Total Football’ of the 1970’s, a system that encompasses positional fluidity, allowing players to leave their zone and take up other positions as the game progresses, whilst their team mate adapts and covers for them. The great Dutch manager Rinus Michels took a more authoritarian approach to this, allowing players to only change position in vertical lines across the pitch. If a defender strode forwards, the midfielder ahead of him would drop deep and cover. Despite this, a freedom to roam allows players to take up an aggressive high press.
When assessing Michels’ Netherlands team of 1974, the rabid style of press is remarkable. But this isn’t exactly the way Cocu wants to set his team up.
Ryan Conway and Michael Cox detailed how Cocu believes in a system whereby players hunt down the ball carrier in twos or potentially threes, instead of a freedom leading to a messy swarm of players chasing the player in possession.
After the defeat at home to Leeds, Cocu spoke of the physical differences between the two sides, which could be the reason Derby’s press hasn’t exactly materialised as of yet. Think about the squad we had, particularly the forward line. Chris Martin, despite his talent, is clearly not built for a pressing system. The same can be said for our wide players, who aren’t necessarily wingers by trade. Dropping deeper, we have 34 year old Wayne Rooney, whose passing range is the major selling point, rather than his athleticism. You get the point.
So which members of Derby’s squad will be best suited for a high press, and could play a role in implementing it this coming season? A fully fit Jack Marriott, who I refuse to give up on, has the potential to be well suited for such a role, and it does feel like a make or break season for him. But when it comes to pressing from midfield, I think a certain Duane Holmes is being overlooked. Holmes was, for me, on track for our player of the season award prior to his injury in February. His energy is remarkable, and he has such ability when it comes to progressing the ball and being efficient in possession:
With central players like Bird, Rooney, Sibley, and the soon to return Bielik, it is understandable why some Derby fans may forget the impact that Holmes can have on the team. His mouth-watering assist for Chris Martin in the 4–0 victory against Stoke was a great indicator of his ability, showing a willingness to progress the ball from his first touch, whilst also surrounded and on the turn. There was an element of sloppiness in Holmes’ game after the restart, but it’s understandable, and I think he has the potential to be one of the first names on the team sheet next season. The quality and depth the squad has in central midfield is frightening.
Derby’s press could be introduced in the shape of a new formation, with three central defenders and two wing-backs. Bogle and Lowe, largely the former based on the attacking output we have seen so far, would be well suited to this role. A five at the back formation with overlapping wing-backs allows teams to defend in a groups of five and attack in groups of five. The attacking element to the formation allows the team to overcrowd a defensive shape of four players, utilised more recently by Inter Milan and former Chelsea boss Antonio Conte. In turn, this would free up Bogle to do what he does best in attacking space down the right. Likewise, this would allow us to see the attacking potential of Max Lowe, who has been positionally more conservative than we may think. With reports suggesting Derby could land two left-sided centre halves in Matt Clarke, and potentially also Jonathan Panzo, I think a change in system could be likely.
A defensive approach to the game can undoubtedly lead to success in the Championship, but I think the increasing influence of attack-minded coaches is good for the division. An effective high-press will most likely lead to two things: an attractive style of football, and more goals. The development of Derby’s model has the potential to be very exciting.
